ERI RAS in cooperation with Russian energy agency (REA) has introduced “Global and Russian energy outlook until 2035”
The conference was co-chaired by ERI RAS director, academician Alexey Makarov and deputy director for scientific affairs of REA professor Leonid Grigoriev.
During his presentation Mr. Leonid Grigoriev has highlighted major factors and differences in long term development of global energy sector across the world. Head of the Oil and Gas sector development Department for Russia and the World Ms.Tatiana Mitrova and Mr.Vyacheslav Kulagin, Deputy director of Center for Energy Market Studies, both with ERI RAS, have introduced key factors of forecasting world energy trends. Academician Mr.Alexey Makarov touched down on perspectives of Russian energy market on a closing session.
Though similar analytical studies were developed in the past by foreign researchers expressing a foreign view of the problem, the introduced forecast is first experience in this field in Russia, which is based on national scientific approach to long term forecasting of global energy sector development. The differences that the presented Forecast 2012 can offer is attention to details in modeling process, interoperations with national energy complex development forecast, demography, dynamical technology development , energy and environmental policy in various countries of the world. The emphasis is being put on disclosed methodology which allows justifying the results achieved.
As it was mentioned by the authors, there is an obvious critical need for a detailed and constantly updated analysis of the world energy market which would be the ground for both - national strategic planning in energy sphere and choosing appropriate solutions in the sphere of corporate investments.
Beside the typical for long–term forecasting consideration of both - basic and negative scenarios, major demand and supply parameters of the energy resources, Forecast 2012 can offer instrument allowing to evaluate economic effect and results of decisions in regulatory field, energy policy and geopolitics. The offered simulations of closure of obsolete NPPs, banned deep water oil drilling (sub scenario “Safe world”), detailed view at alternative oil technologies development, possible success or failure in alternative gas, nuclear sector and renewable energy, possibility of the new global environmental agreements. It is important that instruments of the Forecast allow considering different scenarios within reasonable timeframes and giving a qualitative evaluation of decisions taken of discussed.